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-Expected Utility theories, we strongly reject Prospect Theory probability weighting, we support disappointment aversion if amended to …There is convincing experimental evidence that Expected Utility fails, but when does it fail, how severely, and for … Expected Utility performs well away from certainty, but fails near certainty for about 40% of subjects. Comparing non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461316
role of secondary markets in providing opportunities for redistributing risk is made transparent and the modifications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478938
I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth … display a higher CAPM beta; and (d) households' portfolios change qualitatively. A log-utility investor for instance borrows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479404
explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480462
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463250
In a world of certainty, the design of environmental policy is relatively straightforward, and boils down to maximizing the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty -- over the physical and ecological impact of pollution,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465909
that theory has to offer and then runs a series of simple tests aimed at evaluating the empirical significance of various … of the marginal product of capital, and we find no evidence for the presence of a CAPM-based effect of risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473912
equilibrium model with a fund offering the risk-adjusted market portfolio (RAMP), ambiguity averse investors hold the fund and an … optimal portfolio based on only one information source (price versus private signal). Asset risk premia satisfy the CAPM with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453570
Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459895
Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that emanates from within the economy and which the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436980