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Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
Campbell, John Y. - 1986
In a model where a variable Y[sub t] is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y[sub t] the "spread" S[sub t]= Y[sub t] - [theta sub t] will be stationary for some [theta] whether or not y[sub t]must be differenced to induce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477190
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The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate
Engel, Charles - 1996
economic theory in which the permanent component represents real influences, while the transitory component represents …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473057
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Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 1999
We examine the properties of the ASA-NBER forecasts for several US macroeconomic variables, specifically: (i) are the actual and forecast series integrated of the same order; (ii) are they cointegrated, and; (iii) is the cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471881
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Estimating the Long-Run Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation : A Response to McCallum
Summers, Lawrence H. - 1984
This note demonstrates that Bennett McCallum's recent critique of low frequency estimates of macro-economic relationships is of little empirical significance. It also demonstrates that readily available and frequently used techniques can be used to diagnose the problem McCallum raises. Finally,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477640
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Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values : Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption
Lettau, Martin - 2003
Both textbook economics and common sense teach us that the value of household wealth should be related to consumer spending. At the same time, movements in asset values often seem disassociated with important movements in consumer spending, as episodes such as the 1987 stock market crash and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468849
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Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 1997
estimation techniques. We propose an alternative set of criteria for evaluating forecast rationality which entails the following …, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472881
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Non-Cointegration and Econometric Evaluation of Models of Regional Shift and Share
Brown, Scott J. - 1990
equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting …This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An … using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475744
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Continuous-Time Linear Models
Cochrane, John H. - 2012
models, the relation between levels and differences, integration and cointegration, and the Hansen-Sargent prediction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460479
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Evaluating and Investing in Equity Mutual Funds
Pastor, Lubos - 2000
Our framework for evaluating and investing in mutual funds combines observed returns on funds and passive assets with prior beliefs that distinguish pricing-model inaccuracy from managerial skill. A fund's alpha' is defined using passive benchmarks. We show that returns on non-benchmark passive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470971
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Borrowing Constraints and the Returns to Schooling
Cameron, Stephen - 2000
To a large degree, the expansion of student aid programs to potential college students over the past 25 years in the United States has been based on the presumption that borrowing constraints present an obstacle to obtaining a college education. Economists and sociologists studying schooling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470989