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We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462199
In the context of several examples of problems associated with present budgetary conventions, I revisit Musgrave's conceptual division of the government's program into Allocation, Distribution and Stabilization Branch subbudgets. I suggest progress towards Musgrave's ideal of a more informative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470218
can affect voter turnout and election outcomes. We do so using historical data on more than 2,000 races in Florida and … small effect on turnout. Similarly, we also show under a range of conservative assumptions that very few election results … or critics were true, strict identification laws are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on turnout or election outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480150
We study the contribution of economic conditions to the success of the first avowedly nativist political party in the United States. The Know-Nothing Party gained control of a number of state governments in the 1854-1856 elections running on a staunchly anti-Catholic and anti-Irish platform. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482297
Polities differ in the extent to which political parties can pre-commit to carry out promised policy actions if they take power. Commitment problems may arise due to a divergence between the ex ante incentives facing national parties that seek to capture control of the legislature and the ex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467285
One frequently overlooked aspect of the U.S.-style electoral college system is that it discourages election fraud. In a … presidential election based on the popular vote, competing political parties are motivated to manipulate votes in areas where they … electoral college system provides more effective protection against election fraud compared to the popular vote system. While …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322861
The 2007-2010 recession has imposed significant fiscal hardships on state and local governments. The result has been state deficits and the need to increase state taxes, cut spending, and withdraw funds from state rainy day accounts. The primary cause of state budget "gaps" has been the rise in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462569
In this paper, I review US federal budget rules and present some evidence on their possible effects. From an analysis of how components of the federal budget behaved under the different budget regimes, it appears that the rules did have some effects, rather than simply being statements of policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464358
Based on this framework, we find that a Future Fund portfolio that included (amongst other potential investments) domestic nominal securities and equities of selected countries would reduce overall balance sheet risk
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466348
We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190996