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Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471467
We examine the impact of monetary injections in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg Model and show that monetary shocks can lead to nominal exchange rates that are more volatile than inflation, money growth or interest rate differentials. Moreover, movements in real exchange rates following monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473164
We present a monetary model in the presence of segmented asset markets that implies a persistent fall in interest rates after a once and for all increase in liquidity. The gradual propagation mechanism produced by our model is novel in the literature. We provide an analytical characterization of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461092
How far can shoe-leather go in explaining the welfare cost of inflation? Using a unique set of microeconomic data on households, we estimate the parameters of the demand for money derived from the generalized Baumol-Tobin model. Our data set contains information on average holdings of cash, on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472217
We study the post-war evidence for Japan to see if the same specification for both the economy and the monetary policy rule is useful for understanding Japan's economy and monetary policy. A recurrent theme in the literature on Japanese monetary policy is that there are significant differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472722
Probably no event in monetary history has been more studied than the German hyperinflation of the early 1920's. Economists have been attracted to study this episode since it provides an environment that is close to a controlled experiment which is so rare in the study of social sciences. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478861
changes in modelling strategy and econometric methodology, over the past twenty years, on estimation of firm-level investment … correction, traditional between- and within-firm estimation versus GMM estimation, the investment behavior of French firms versus … significant improvement in the specification, estimation and interpretation of firm investment equations; we also fin some real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471345
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum … in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test … samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
The estimation of racial disparities in various fields is often hampered by the lack of individual-level racial … Instrumental Regression for Disparity Estimation (BIRDiE), that take BISG probabilities as inputs and produce racial disparity … estimates by using surnames as an instrumental variable for race. Our estimation method is scalable, making it possible to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528412
We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471967