Showing 1 - 10 of 12,618
Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471467
We study the post-war evidence for Japan to see if the same specification for both the economy and the monetary policy rule is useful for understanding Japan's economy and monetary policy. A recurrent theme in the literature on Japanese monetary policy is that there are significant differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472722
changes in modelling strategy and econometric methodology, over the past twenty years, on estimation of firm-level investment … correction, traditional between- and within-firm estimation versus GMM estimation, the investment behavior of French firms versus … significant improvement in the specification, estimation and interpretation of firm investment equations; we also fin some real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471345
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum … in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test … samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
The estimation of racial disparities in various fields is often hampered by the lack of individual-level racial … Instrumental Regression for Disparity Estimation (BIRDiE), that take BISG probabilities as inputs and produce racial disparity … estimates by using surnames as an instrumental variable for race. Our estimation method is scalable, making it possible to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528412
We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471967
econometric performance of regime-switching models for interest rate data from the US, Germany and the UK. There is strong …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472295
States, the United Kingdom, and Germany using the Campbell-Shiller (1991) regressions and a vector …-problem effects is largely consistent with term structure data from the U.S., U.K., and Germany …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472666
We compute new estimates for Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth in five European countries and in the United States. Departing from standard methods, we account for positive profits and use firm surveys to proxy for unobserved changes in factor utilization. These novelties have a major...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247926
-least-squares estimates, the various exchange rates are also estimated as a system using the mixed-estimation procedure which combines the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478860