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We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one fourth and one third of the increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459026
Since the early 1990s, as the United States borrowed heavily from the rest of the world, employment in the U.S. goods-producing sector has fallen. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with several mechanisms that could generate declining goods-sector employment: foreign borrowing,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459322
Large savings and current account surpluses by China and other countries are said to be a contributor to the global … current account imbalances and possibly to the recent global financial crisis. This paper proposes a theory of excess savings … show conditions under which an intensified competition in the marriage market can induce men to raise their savings rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462653
Trending current accounts pose a challenge for intertemporal open-economy macro models. This paper shows that a two-country representative-agent business cycle model is able to explain the historical time-paths of the US and Japanese current accounts, both of which display trends but in opposite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463405
rate. So a rise will be driven by higher household savings of the coming years as the two primary forces that depressed … savings in recent years are reversed: the exceptionally rapid rise in household wealth and the high level of mortgage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464697
We study the evolution of the U.S. current account in a two-country dynamic stochastic endowment model in which a single non-state contingent bond is the only internationally traded asset. The paper focuses on the world `saving glut' as the primary cause of continual deterioration in the current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465076
institutional development, with a goal of informing the recent debate over the existence and relevance of the "savings glut." The … reverse correlation; greater financial development leads to higher savings. Furthermore, there is no evidence of "excess …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466910
Faced with income fluctuations, countries smooth their consumption by raising savings when income is high, and vice … versa. How much of these savings do countries invest at home and abroad? In other words, what are the effects of … fluctuations in savings on domestic investment and the current account? In the long run, we find that countries invest the marginal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469683
This paper revises pre-World War II current account data for thirteen countries by treating gold flows on a consistent basis. The standard historical data sources often fail to distinguish between monetary gold exports, which are capital-account credits, and nonmonetary gold exports, which are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472711
parameters and on changes in the external environment. Although more than 90 percent of the savings decline in the United States … decade-average savings retention coefficient was 0.73. implying that nearly three-fourths of each additional dollar that was …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474999