We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the long-duration liabilities of households and firms using high-frequency variation in 10-year swap rates around FOMC announcements. We find that four weeks after the announcement mortgage rates move one-for-one with 10-year swap rates,...

In this paper we use the functional vector autoregression (VAR) framework of Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) to study the effects of monetary policy shocks (conventional and informational) on the cross-sectional distribution of U.S. earnings (from the Current Population Survey), consumption,...

The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. We find that the demand for more theoretically-based...

Financial technology has reshaped commercial banking. It has the potential to radically alter the transmission of monetary policy by lowering search costs and expanding bank markets. This paper studies the reaction of online banks to changes in federal fund rates. We find that these banks...

Building on the work of Jiang et al. (2023) we develop a framework to analyze the effects of credit risk on the solvency of U.S. banks in the rising interest rate environment. We focus on commercial real estate (CRE) loans that account for about quarter of assets for an average bank and about...

When policymakers implement a disinflation program directed at high inflation, the real dollar value of their country's stock market index experiences a cumulative abnormal 12-month return of 48 percent in anticipation of the event. In contrast, the average cumulative abnormal 12-month return...

We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...

The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact...

This paper uses evidence from the Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections to show that US monetary policymakers have objectives over unemployment and inflation outcomes that are not well-approximated through a conventional quadratic loss function. Rather, policymakers...

When the Federal Reserve (Fed) expanded its balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE), commercial banks financed reserve holdings with deposits and reduced their average maturity. They also issued lines of credit to corporations. However, when the Fed halted its balance-sheet expansion in 2014...