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Macroeconomic dynamics are shaped by how individual incentives to spend and accumulate interact with the decisions of others. The goal of this paper is to identify--within a simple large-game-theoretic structure--which types of agent interactions favor which types of dynamic equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635624
Explanations of procyclical productivity play a key role in a variety of business-cycle models. Most of these models, however, explain this procyclicality within a representative-firm paradigm. This procedure is misleading. We decompose aggregate productivity changes into several terms, each of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473485
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480620
Most empirical policy work requires the aggregation of policies. Trade policy aggregation exemplifies the aggregation … problem poignantly, with thousands of highly dispersed trade barriers. This paper provides methods of policy aggregation that …-country policy modeling. An application to India shows that the standard atheoretic method of aggregation overstates India's real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464601
from VAR estimates. The extent of this "missing persistence bias" decreases with the level of aggregation, yet convergence … persistence measures that vary systematically with levels of aggregation should be examined with care since the differential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468799
indicate that aggregation can introduce substantial upward biases in the insurance effects. Overall we find a statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468871
In many cases, aggregate data is used to make inferences about individual level behavior. If there are social interactions in which one person's actions influence his neighbor's incentives or information, then these inferences are inappropriate. The presence of positive social interactions, or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469557
This paper analyzes individual decisions to participate in an activity and the aggregation of those decisions when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469735
The Consumer Price Index does not take into account the fact that consumers alter the composition of their purchases in response to changes in relative prices. This substitution effect will cause the CPI to grow faster than the cost of living. This paper presents new estimates showing that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472841
The paper demonstrates the general difficulty of inferring the structure of adjustment costs from aggregated, including industry data, except in the unlikely case that costs are symmetric and quadratic at the micro level. The implications of this difficulty for cross-national comparisons of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474924