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Gan, Li - 2003

Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469223

Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS

Hurd, Michael D. - 1993

In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474380

The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play

Clotfelter, Charles T. - 1991

The -gambler's fallacy- is the belief that the probability of an event is lowered when that event has recently occurred, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent from one trial to the next. This paper provides evidence on the time pattern of lottery...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475231

A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators

Stock, James H. - 1988

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, currently compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce, is designed to measure the state of overall economic activity. The index is constructed as a weighted average of four key macroeconomic time series, where the weights are obtained using rules that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476288

Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive? : A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design

Montazerhodjat, Vahid - 2015

Implicit in the drug-approval process is a trade-off between Type I and Type II error. We explore the application of Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) to minimize the expected cost of drug approval, where relative costs are calibrated using U.S. Burden of Disease Study 2010 data. The results for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457169

On the Source and Instability of Probability Weighting

Frydman, Cary; Jin, Lawrence J. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We propose and experimentally test a new theory of probability distortions in risky choice. The theory is based on a … theory generates additional novel predictions regarding heterogeneity and time variation in probability distortions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337806

How People Use Statistics

Bordalo, Pedro; Conlon, John; Gennaioli, Nicola; Kwon, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending "bottom up" to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337863

The Effects of Investing Social Security Funds in the Stock Market When Fixed Costs Prevent Some Households from Holding Stocks

Abel, Andrew B. - 2000

With fixed costs of participating in the stock market, consumers with high income will participate in the stock market, but consumers with lower income will not participate. If a fully-funded defined-contribution social security system tries to exploit the equity premium by selling a dollar of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471011

Do Debt Flows Crowd Out Equity Flows Or the Other Way Round?

Razin, Assaf - 2000

In the presence of asymmetric information, the stage at which financing decisions are made about investment projects in … channeling savings into investment. This paper compares the implications of two extreme cases regarding the information possessed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471014

Information Production and Capital Allocation : Decentralized vs. Hierarchical Firms

Stein, Jeremy C. - 2000

This paper assesses different organizational forms in terms of their ability to generate information about investment … costlessly hardened' and passed along within the hierarchy. As a concrete application of the theory, the paper discusses the …, this is exactly what the theory would lead one to expect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471056

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