Showing 1 - 10 of 8,545
We inject aggregate uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - into an otherwise standard business cycle model and describe its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458347
We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458691
Can increased uncertainty about the future cause a contraction in output and its components? An identified uncertainty shock in the data causes significant declines in output, consumption, investment, and hours worked. Standard general-equilibrium models with flexible prices cannot reproduce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460240
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461507
We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we motivate the study of uncertainty shocks by documenting the presence of time-variation in the volatility of macroeconomic time series. Second, we enumerate the mechanisms that researchers have postulated to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479292
We identify a shock that explains the bulk of fluctuations in equity risk premia, and show that the shock also explains … contract workers. A real model with labor market frictions and fluctuations in risk appetite can explain all of these facts …, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The size of risk-driven fluctuations depends on the relationship between the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510571
Macroeconomic dynamics are shaped by how individual incentives to spend and accumulate interact with the decisions of others. The goal of this paper is to identify--within a simple large-game-theoretic structure--which types of agent interactions favor which types of dynamic equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635624
Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that emanates from within the economy and which the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436980
In this paper we study the neoclassical growth model with idiosyncratic income risk and aggregate risk in which risk … pay off depending on both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk, but limited commitment rules out that households sell these … conditions under which it has lower/higher risk premia than the corresponding representative agent version of the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437034
specified in current law. Calculations of expected utility show that these risk reduction techniques can raise expected utility … relative to the plans with no guarantees. The ability to do so depends on the individual's risk aversion level. This underlines … the idea that different individuals would rationally prefer different investment strategies and risk reduction options …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467601