This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability that explicitly takes into account willingness to pay and willingness to lend in addition to intertemporal solvency. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a better framework for understanding the variety of...

The intertemporal approach views the current-account balance as the outcome of forward-looking dynamic saving and investment decisions. This paper, a chapter in the forthcoming third volume of the Handbook of International Economics, surveys the theory and empirical work on the intertemporal...

In several countries temporary terms of trade improvements have led to a deterioration of the current account. Furthermore, many of these countries failed to attain greater post-boom growth rates. The point we make is that the structure of the fiscal process is critical in determining outcomes....

I examine the evolution of the Japanese trade balance and its relation to the terms of trade and the value of the yen. Using a vector time series model, I predict that the trade surplus will fall from a high of 3.7 percent of GNP in late 1992 to about 2.6 percent in 1995. This relatively modest...

The organization of this paper is as follows. Section I builds an empirically implementable model of the current account. Likewise, Section II derives the essential time series properties of the real exchange rate. Positive implications of the intertemporal approach against panel and...

The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...

The intertemporal approach to the current account is often regarded as theoretically elegant but of limited empirical significance. This paper derives highly tractable current account and investment specifications that we estimate without resorting to calibration or simulation methods. In...

Although the link between the U.S. budget deficit and trade deficit in the 1980s was so clear that the two were popularly labeled the twin deficits, it is wrong to generalize from the American experience of the 1980s to the conclusion that budget deficits and trade deficits are two sides of the...

This paper uses analytical and simulation models to study the impact of temporary and permanent import surcharges on the U.S. balance of trade. The analytical model of a two-country, two-commodity, two-period endowment economy brings out the intersectoral and intertemporal substitution effects...

This paper analyze these effects of a tariff in an intertemporal optimizing model, emphasizing the role of capital accumulation. Three types of increases in the tariff rate are considered: (i) unanticipated permanent; (ii) unanticipated temporary; (iii) anticipated permanent. There are two main...