Similar Search Results

Forecasting Output and Inflation : The Role of Asset Prices

Stock, James H. - 2001

This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output … prices predict either inflation or output growth in some countries in some periods. Which series predicts what, when and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470546

Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980

Gordon, Robert J. - 1981

This paper introduces a new approach to the empirical testing of the Lucas- Sargent-Wallace (LSW) "policy ineffectiveness proposition." Instead of testing that hypothesis in isolation from any plausible alternative, the paper develops a single empirical equation explaining price change that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478371

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

Stock, James H. - 2006

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466341

Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data

Blanco, Andrés; Boar, Corina; Jones, Callum; Midrigan, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

-price changes and the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation in the U.S. time-series. Though the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635711

Improving GDP Measurement : A Forecast Combination Perspective

Aruoba, S. Boragan - 2011

Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461237

Bad Men, Good Roads, Jim Crow, and the Economics of Southern Chain Gangs

Bodenhorn, Howard - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Penology in the Jim Crow South centered on the chain gang. Gangs ostensibly served three purposes: their severity served as a deterrent; their putting convicts to work on roads and other public improvements reduced the taxpayers' costs of infrastructure; and their discriminatory implementation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482623

First Foot Forward : A Two-Step Econometric Method for Parsing and Estimating the Impacts of Multiple Identities

Hanks, Andrew S.; Kniffin, Kevin M.; Qian, Xuechao; Wang, Bo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Marketing and strategy researchers have often studied how organizations navigate multiple identities in relation to category spanning but extant literature pays less attention to understanding how individuals do so. Moreover, current econometric approaches only scratch the surface with respect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334510

The Cost of Regulatory Compliance in the United States

Trebbi, Francesco - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We quantify firms' compliance costs of regulation from 2002 to 2014 in terms of their labor input expenditure to comply with government rules, a primary component of regulatory compliance spending for large portions of the U.S. economy. Detailed establishment-level occupation data, in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462739

Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns : Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods

Cochrane, John H. - 1990

Lagged GNP growth rates are poor forecasts of future GNP growth rates in postwar US data, leading to the impression that GNP is nearly a random walk. However, other variables, and especially the lagged consumption/GNP ratio, do forecast long-horizon GNP growth, and show that GNP has temporary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475603

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

Engelberg, Joseph - 2006

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466693