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1
Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China
Fehr, Hans
-
2005
China eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467008
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2
A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth : Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio
Gordon, Robert J.
-
2014
Forecasts for the two or three years after mid-2014 have converged on growth rates of real GDP in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent, a major stepwise increase from realized growth of 2.1 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2014. However, these forecasts are based on the demand for goods and services....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458244
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3
Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
Fernald, John
-
2014
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules out explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out "bubble economy" stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458418
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4
Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia
Bloom, David E.
-
1997
The demographic transition a change from high to low rates of mortality and fertility has been more dramatic in East Asia during this century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this essay shows that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472544
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5
The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity
Maestas, Nicole
-
2016
Population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. This paper starts from the observation that many U.S. states have already experienced substantial growth in the size of their older...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456225
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6
The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan
Uribe, Martín
-
2017
I investigate the effects of an increase in the nominal interest rate on inflation and output in the United States and Japan during the postwar period. I postulate a structural autoregressive model that allows for transitory and permanent nominal and real shocks. I find that nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453736
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7
The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies – Projections for the United States and Germany from a Dynamic Microsimulation
Böheim, René
;
Horvath, Gerard Thomas
;
Leoni, Thomas
; …
-
National Bureau of Economic Research
-
2021
Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections are consistent with the U S Census Bureau's and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794562
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8
Skill Gaps, Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatches : Evidence for the US
Cappelli, Peter
-
2014
Concerns that there are problems with the supply of skills, especially education-related skills, in the US labor force have exploded in recent years with a series of reports from employer-associated organizations but also from independent and even government sources making similar claims. These...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458284
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9
The Power of Inclusive Labor Force Participation for Mitigating Population Aging : Closing Gaps at the Intersection Between Race/Ethnicity and Gender in the United States
Böheim, René
;
Horvath, Gerard Thomas
;
Leoni, Thomas
; …
-
National Bureau of Economic Research
-
2024
We develop a dynamic microsimulation model to project the labor force and economic dependency ratios in the United States from 2022 to 2060, taking population projections and the large inequalities between population groups of different race/ethnicity and gender into account. We contrast policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576619
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10
The Wage Curve After the Great Recession
Blanchflower, David G.
;
Bryson, Alex
;
Spurling, Jackson
-
National Bureau of Economic Research
-
2022
formation in the
USA
and hasn't been since the Great Recession. Instead, we show rates of under-employment (the percentage of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361977
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