This study investigates the equilibrium demand for narrowly defined monetary aggregate during the Great Depression. We find evidence in support of a stable demand for real balance, but no evidence in support of stable demand functions for real currency and real monetary base. This is consistent...

This study investigates the stability of long-run log-linear demand functions for narrowly defined monetary aggregates (M1, Monetary Base) in the U.S. during the post World War II period. The hypotheses that the individual time series which appear in such equations (real M1, real Monetary Base,...

Bank-created money, shadow-bank money, and Treasury bonds all satisfy investors' demand for a liquid transaction medium and safe store of value. We measure the quantity of these three forms of liquidity and their corresponding liquidity premium over a sample from 1934 to 2016. We empirically...

We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that com-bines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more timely and precise signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology consists of three key...

We propose and illustrate a Markov-switching multi-fractal duration (MSMD) model for analysis of inter-trade durations in financial markets. We establish several of its key properties with emphasis on high persistence (indeed long memory). Empirical exploration suggests MSMD's superiority...

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the...

This paper examines the empirical relationship in the postwar United States between the aggregate business cycle and various aspects of the macroeconomy, such as production, interest rates, prices, productivity, sectoral employment, investment, income, and consumption. This is done by examining...

A sleepy consensus has emerged that U.S. GNP data are uninformative as to whether trend is better described as deterministic or stochastic. Although the distinction is not critical in some contexts, it is important for point forecasting, because the two models imply very different long-run...

Human capital accumulation and technological change were to the twentieth century what physical capital accumulation was to the nineteenth century -- the engine of growth. The accumulation of human capital accounts for almost 60% of all capital formation and 28% of the per capita growth residual...

This paper catalogs the business cycle properties of 163 monthly U.S. economic time series over the three decades from 1959 through 1988. Two general sets of summary statistics are reported. The first set measures the comovement of each individual time series with a reference series representing...