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Jurado, Kyle - 2013

This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459206

The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets

Rigobon, Roberto - 2003

This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469089

Fluctuations in Uncertainty

Bloom, Nicholas - 2013

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458949

Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments

Baker, Scott R. - 2013

A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187

Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets

Harvey, Campbell R. - 1994

correlations with developed countries' equity markets significantly reduces the unconditional portfolio risk of a world investor …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474313

Long-run Bulls and Bears

Albuquerque, Rui - 2015

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457808

The Time Series of the Cross Section of Asset Prices

Menzly, Lior - 2002

horizon predictability, and a low volatility of the risk free rate. The model combines a rich payoff structure with a habit …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469492

What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?

Grinblatt, Mark - 2002

Multihorizon temporal relationships between stock returns are complex due to confounding sources of return premia, microstructure effects, and changes in the relationship over various horizons. We find the relation to be further complicated by the sign and consistency of the past return that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469971

The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data

Engle, Robert F. - 1996

Ultra-high frequency data are complete transactions data which inherently arrive at random times. Marked point processes provide a theoretical framework for analysis of such data sets. The ACD model developed by Engle and Russell (1995) is then applied to IBM transactions data to develop...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473012

No News is Good News : An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns

Campbell, John Y. - 1991

It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock prices. This paper modifies the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of returns to allow for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475263