As the pandemic spread across the U.S., disagreement among U.S. households about inflation expectations surged along … with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, the inflation experienced by households became … between the inflation experienced by households in their daily shopping and their perceived and expected levels of inflation …

The rise, fall, and stabilization of US inflation between 1969 and 2005 is consistent with a model of shifting policy … sector learning about policymaker type. Using model-implied inflation forecasting rules to extract state variables from the … inflation forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we provide evidence that policy regimes without commitment …

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …

A key policy question is: How high an inflation rate should central banks target? This depends crucially on the costs … of inflation. An important concern is that high inflation will lead to inefficient price dispersion. Workhorse New … Keynesian models imply that this cost of inflation is very large. An increase in steady state inflation from 0% to 10% yields a …

A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

This paper provides new evidence on a long-standing question asked by Shiller (1997): Why do we dislike inflation? I … inflation and their reactions to it. The predominant reason for people's aversion to inflation is the widespread belief that it …-income groups. Inflation also provokes stress, emotional responses, and a sense of inequity, as the wages of high-income individuals …

Why do some attempts at disinflation lead to substantial reductions in inflation while others do not? We investigate … that a fundamental determinant of success in reducing inflation was the strength of the Federal Reserve's commitment to … disinflation at the start of its attempts. In episodes where its commitment was high, there were significant declines in inflation …

We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while … those of Republicans did not. Republicans' expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more … affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation …

hedging approach can eliminate nearly 90 percent of the tracking error of more conventional inflation hedging strategies. We … also find that long-short positions in equities play a dominant role in the effective hedging of inflation risk over …We propose a new approach to constructing inflation tracking portfolios. The key to this approach is the insight that …