This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …

series for unemployment and inflation, including additional supply shift variables in the Phillips curve, using monthly or … quarterly data, and using various measures for expected inflation. This imprecision suggests caution in using the NAIRU to guide …

matters for stabilization policy is the rate of inflation, not the rate of wage change. This paper provides new estimates of … result in the paper is that wage changes do not contribute statistically to the explanation of inflation. Deviations in the … growth of labor cost from the path of inflation cause changes in labor's income share, and changes in the profit share in the …

ideas. The coroner's evidence consists of the small standard deviation of the core inflation rate in the past two decades … despite substantial volatility of the unemployment rate, and in particular the common tendency of PC inflation equations to … predict ever greater amounts of negative inflation (i.e., deflation) over the years of labor-market slack since 2008 …

difference by showing that, although the pass-through of marginal cost into inflation is substantial, the elasticity of marginal … inflation …

Phillips-curve framework of low---often extremely low---response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly … most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat …

This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values ( inertia ), demand shocks proxied …

flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960 … of 2021. This pronounced rise was primarily informed by strong wage growth rather than changes in inflation expectations …. Our model forecasts strong wage growth to moderate only sluggishly continuing to put upward pressure on inflation in the …