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Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?
Eichengreen, Barry - 2008
We ask whether Poland is at risk of the boom-bust problem that has afflicted economies around the time of euro adoption …. Our answer, inevitably, is mixed. On the one hand the fact that Poland is an outlier, credit-growth wise, accentuates the … Poland. And it is certainly conceivable that the same policies and country characteristics (not always visible to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464209
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Macroeconomic Volatility in Latin America : A View and Three Case Studies
Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2000
After decades of trial, error, and occasional regress the pieces of a successful Latin American economic model can be seen scattered among the leading economies of the region. The most traditional macroeconomic maladies of the emerging world - such as chronic fiscal imbalances and monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470968
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Growth and Business Cycles
Jones, Larry - 2000
Our purpose in this paper is to present a class of convex endogenous growth models, and to analyze their performance in terms of both growth and business cycle criteria. The models we study have close analogs in the real business cycle literature. In fact, we interpret the exogenous growth rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471134
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Economic Recovery from the Argentine Great Depression : Institutions, Expectations, and the Change of Macroeconomic Regime
Paolera, Gerardo della - 2000
This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471138
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The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle : Evidence and Some Implications
Gertler, Mark - 2000
The market for high yield (below investment-grade) corporate bonds developed in the middle 1980s. We show that, since this time, the high yield spread has had significant explanatory power for the business cycle. We interpret this finding as possibly symptomatic of financial factors at work in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471226
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Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle : Specification and Stability
Ireland, Peter N. - 2000
This paper focuses on the specification and stability of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model of the American business cycle with sticky prices. Maximum likelihood estimates reveal that the data prefer a version of the model in which adjustment costs apply to the price level but not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471265
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Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
Talvi, Ernesto - 2000
Based on a sample of 56 countries, we find that while fiscal policy in the G-7 countries appears to be broadly consistent with Barro's tax smoothing proposition, in developing countries government spending and taxes are highly procyclical (i.e., government spending rises and taxes fall during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471277
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The Impact of Air Pollution on Infant Mortality : Evidence from Geographic Variation in Pollution Shocks Induced by a Recession
Chay, Kenneth Y. - 1999
This study uses sharp, differential air quality changes across sites attributable to geographic variation in the effects of the 1981-82 recession to estimate the relationship between infant mortality and particulates air pollution. It is shown that in the narrow period of 1980-82, there was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471340
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The Cost of Recessions Revisited : A Reverse-Liquidationist View
Caballero, Ricardo J. - 1999
The observation that liquidations are concentrated in recessions has long been the subject of controversy. One view holds that liquidations are beneficial in that they result in increased restructuring. Another view holds that liquidations are privately inefficient and essentially wasteful. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471429
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What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About Business Cycles
Bils, Mark - 1999
Manufacturers' finished goods inventories move less than shipments over the business cycle. We argue that this requires marginal cost to be more procyclical than is conventionally measured. We construct, for six manufacturing industries, alternative measures of marginal cost that attribute...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471474