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From Predictive Algorithms to Automatic Generation of Anomalies
Mullainathan, Sendhil; Rambachan, Ashesh - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
highlight flaws in an existing theory and spur the development of new ones. Canonical examples include the Allais paradox and … the Kahneman-Tversky choice experiments for expected utility theory. We suggest anomalies can extract theoretical insights … from black box predictive algorithms. We develop procedures to automatically generate anomalies for an existing theory when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544701
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Trade Wars and the Optimal Design of Monetary Rules
Auray, Stéphane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurélien - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Monetary rules may have a large effect on the outcome of trade wars if central banks target the CPI inflation rate or more generally changes in the relative price of traded goods. We lay out a two-country open-economy model with sticky prices where countries engage in trade wars. In the presence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544729
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The Concave Phillips Curve
Kocherlakota, Narayana Rao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This paper derives the curvature properties of the short-run Phillips curve in a class of canonical models of price-setting frictions. Contrary to conventional thinking, the Phillips curve is asymptotically horizontal for high levels of economic activity and asymptotically vertical for low...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544805