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Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Mineyama, Tomohide; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576667
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Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?
Alfaro, Laura; Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang; Chor, Davin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals' preferences for trade policies through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each treatment provides a concise statement of economics research findings on how openness to trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287341
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Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? And if so, why? And what is next?
Goldberg, Pinelopi K.; Reed, Tristan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post … towards globalization. Similarly, the COVID pandemic provided novel arguments against free trade based on global supply chain … policy, export restrictions in particular, to halt China's technological development. The future of globalization is highly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250133
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Is the American Soft Power a Casualty of the Trade War?
Fan, Haichao; Hu, Yichuan; Tang, Lixin; Wei, Shang-Jin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
The US trade war against China in 2018-2019 can either enhance or diminish the US soft power in China, depending on whether it is recognized as legitimate by Chinese citizens. We study how the viewership of US movies--an important element of the US soft power--is affected by the trade war,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191093
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The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability : A General Equilibrium Analysis
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Van … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper quantifies the positive and normative impact of Bretton Woods capital controls on global and regional economic activity. A three-region DSGE capital flows accounting framework consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337829
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CBDCs, Payment Firms, and Geopolitics
Berg, Tobias; Keil, Jan; Martini, Felix; Puri, Manju - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We analyze the effect of a major central bank digital currency (CBDC) - the digital euro - on the payment industry to find remarkably heterogeneous effects. Stock prices of U.S. payment firms decrease, while stock prices of European payment firms increase in response to positive announcements on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056184
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Bilateral Trade as a Development Instrument Under Global Trade Restrictions
Nashashibi, Karim - 1974
In their striving toward development, a number of less developed countries have espoused bilateral trade as yet another policy instrument allowing them to increase their acquisition of foreign resources. This has been particularly true of the trade of India, Pakistan, and Egypt, on which some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479072
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Monetary Policy in an Era of Global Supply Chains
Wei, Shang-Jin - 2020
We study the implications of global supply chains for the design of monetary policy, using a small-open economy New Keynesian model with multiple stages of production. Within the family of simple monetary policy rules with commitment, a rule that targets separate producer price inflation at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479127
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Might Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?
Baley, Isaac - 2019
Common wisdom dictates that uncertainty impedes trade--we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. In equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and the variance in returns to exporting implying that trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479559
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Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment
Carneiro, Rafael Dix; Pessoa, João Paulo; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to technology, trade … quantitatively the short- and long-run implications of globalization shocks for labor reallocation and unemployment dynamics. In a … 2.2% gain in response to globalization shocks. These gains would have been 73% larger in the absence of the global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482533