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Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
Drechsel, Thomas - 2017
are associated with lower spreads between the country's borrowing rate and world interest rates. Both effects jointly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453995
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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation
Fernández, Andrés - 2016
intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847
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Was This Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics
Céspedes, Luis Felipe - 2013
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458915
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The Natural Resource Curse : A Survey
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010
sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462796
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Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments
Groen, Jan J. J. - 2010
In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462882
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The Consumption Terms of Trade and Commodity Prices
Berka, Martin - 2009
trade, providing a natural hedge against world price fluctuations. We find the consumption terms of trade at local prices is … more volatile than at world prices, but the two are strongly positively correlated. The same commodities dominate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463069
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Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700
Jacks, David S. - 2009
of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The … been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro … never been constant. Globalization increased poor country specialization in commodities when the world went open after the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463899
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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?
Chen, Yu-Chin - 2008
We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464746
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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2006
Commodity prices are back. This paper looks at connections between monetary policy, and agricultural and mineral commodities. We begin with the monetary influences on commodity prices, first for a large country such as the United States, then smaller countries. The claim is that low real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465947
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Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices
Pindyck, Robert S. - 1990
The idea that wages rise relative to alternatives as job seniority accumulates is the foundation of the theory of specific human capital, as well as other widely accepted theories of compensation. The fact that persons with longer job tenures typically earn higher wages tends to support these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475740