, generating slightly more than 1:09% annualized, inflation-adjusted excess total return over the market benchmark during a period …

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

techniques, I search for an impact of size on the level of income, inflation, material well-being, health, education, the quality …

expectations of the time-paths of future short interest rates, monetary policy, inflation rates and currency depreciation rates …

fiscal operations, inflation, interest rate, and indexes of selected leading indicators. Quarterly series are used, each …

-sample estimation. In contrast to Orphanides (2002, 2003), I find that the Fed's response to the real-time forecast of inflation was … coefficients. The estimation is based on real-time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock … (2000). However, the response to inflation was strong before 1973 and gradually regained strength from the early 1980's …