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Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier - 2020

We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm's liquidity shortfall during and after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481180

Diagnosing the Italian Disease

Pellegrino, Bruno - 2017

We try to explain why Italy's labor productivity stopped growing in the mid-1990s. We find no evidence that this … slowdown is due to trade dynamics, Italy's inefficient governmental apparatus, or excessively protective labor regulations. By … contrast, the data suggest that Italy's slowdown was more likely caused by the failure of its firms to take full advantage of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453749

COVID-19 and SMEs : A 2021 "Time Bomb"?

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 "time-bomb" for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482634

Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America : Learning from Argentina and Chile

Calvo, Guillermo A. - 2005

This paper shows that the Russian 1998 crisis had a big impact on capital flows to Emerging Market Economies, EMs, especially in Latin America, and that the impact of the Russian shock differs quite markedly across EMs. To illustrate this statement, we compare the polar cases of Chile and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467532

Towards a General Theory of Deep Downturns

Stiglitz, Joseph E. - 2015

This paper, an extension of the Presidential Address to the International Economic Association, evaluates alternative strands of macro-economics in terms of the three basic questions posed by deep downturns: What is the source of large perturbations? How can we explain the magnitude of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457224

Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy

Stiglitz, Joseph E. - 2014

Macroeconomics has not done well in recent years: The standard models didn't predict the Great Recession; and even said it couldn't happen. After the bubble burst, the models did not predict the full consequences

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458148

Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession : Is This Time Different?

Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. - 2013

This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459910

A Series of Unfortunate Events : Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2012

We document that the global scope and depth of the crisis the began with the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the summer of 2007 is unprecedented in the post World War II era and, as such, the most relevant comparison benchmark is the Great Depression (or the Great Contraction, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460718

International Financial Crises and the Multilateral Response : What the Historical Record Shows

Barkbu, Bergljot - 2011

We review the modern history of financial crises, providing a context for analyses of the world's recent bout of financial instability. Along with indicators of economic performance in the subject countries, we present a comprehensive description of multilateral rescue efforts spanning the last...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461297

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08 : Is it Unprecedented?

Bordo, Michael D. - 2010

In terms of global incidence the recent crisis is fourth in ranking and comparable to 1907-08. We also calculate output losses during the recessions associated with global financial crises and again the recent crisis is similar in severity to 1907-08 and is fourth in ranking. On both dimensions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462068