Showing 1 - 10 of 3,248
We provide the planner's solution to a model where households learn from exogenous natural disaster arrivals about … since disaster leads to pessimistic arrival-rate beliefs and taxes or mandates to fund mitigation, which reduce consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482023
This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482243
pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years. Both rich and poor countries exhibit this response, with … suppression of annual growth rates spread across the fifteen years following disaster, generating large and significant cumulative … continuous exposure to disaster. Linking these results to projections of future cyclone activity, we estimate that under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458315
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187
fight and endure war, the government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction and adopted policies to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455246
For most of the post WWII period, until recently, trade protectionism followed a downward trend, and was formulated in multilateral or bilateral agreements between countries. Recently however, there hasbeen a sharp shift towards unilateral, discretionary trade policy focused on short term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481315
to go to war with each other, even after controlling for a wide set of measures of geographic distance and other factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463555
We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during World War II. We … decisions. We use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the … war. For the war generation of women, the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464939
Warfare is enormously destructive, and yet countries regularly initiate armed conflict against one another. Even more surprisingly, wars are often quite popular with citizens who stand to gain little materially and may lose much more. This paper presents a model of warfare as the result of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465922
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469089