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unanticipated and large, they are a plausible instrument for identifying the impact of exporting on firm productivity and other … that export growth leads to increases firm productivity and other firm performance measures. Consistent with "earning …-by-exporting", the productivity impact of export growth is greater when firms export to more developed countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464017
The central puzzle in international business cycles is that real exchange rates are volatile and persistent. The most popular story for real exchange rate fluctuations is that they are generated by monetary shocks interacting with sticky goods prices. We quantify this story and find that it can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470868
We develop an estimator for latent factors in a large-dimensional panel of financial data that can explain expected excess returns. Statistical factor analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has problems identifying factors with a small variance that are important for asset pricing....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453100
Models of voting, including the canonical rational voter model, predict that voters are more likely to turn out when they anticipate a closer election. Yet, evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout is limited. We exploit naturally occurring variation in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455191
Studies find price increases for additions to the S&P 500 index but no decreases for deletions. Additions come with good earnings news, suggesting these studies are not just measuring an indexing effect. We develop a regression discontinuity design using Russell Indices for cleaner...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459371
In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. The transitional hazards are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471509
How will countries handle idiosyncratic national macroeconomic shocks under the European single currency? The ways in which European countries now react to internally asymmetric shocks provide a better forecast than do the regional response pattern of the United States. In this paper we compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471641
We analyze the role of labor mobility in cushioning labor demand shocks in the Euro Area. We find that foreign born workers' mobility is strongly cyclical, while this is not the case for natives. Foreigners' higher population to employment elasticity reduces the variation of overall employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480742
out to be only a slowdown, and inflation never departed from levels consistent with the ECB's quantitative definition of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465125
upon exchange rate adjustments as a mechanism to correct for PPP deviations arising from divergent domestic inflation rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456694