We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on … recent inflation whereas other firms are not. This information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation … expectations. We find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices, increase demand for …

We study the (lack of) anchoring of inflation expectations in New Zealand using a new survey of firms. Managers of … these firms display little anchoring of inflation expectations, despite twenty-five years of inflation targeting by the … central bankers as well as central banks' objectives, and are generally poorly informed about recent inflation dynamics. Their …

A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates … consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of … absolute credibility and credibility in expectation, are distinguished. The inflation targets of Canada, New Zealand and Sweden …

lessons for both inflation measurement and some fundamental research questions in macro and international economics. In …

We explore a hypothesis about the take-off in inflation that occurred in the early 1970s. According to the expectations … trap hypothesis, the Fed was pushed into producing the high inflation out of a fear of violating the public's inflation … expectations. We compare this hypothesis with the Phillips curve hypothesis, according to which the Fed produced the high inflation …

This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

As the pandemic spread across the U.S., disagreement among U.S. households about inflation expectations surged along … with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, the inflation experienced by households became … between the inflation experienced by households in their daily shopping and their perceived and expected levels of inflation …

The rise, fall, and stabilization of US inflation between 1969 and 2005 is consistent with a model of shifting policy … sector learning about policymaker type. Using model-implied inflation forecasting rules to extract state variables from the … inflation forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we provide evidence that policy regimes without commitment …

policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses …'s short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent …

formation and inflation in a number of small, classical macroeconomic models. This amounts to reworking some of the government … crowding-out pressure it represents. A better measure would be the inflation-and-real-growth-corrected, cyclically adjusted …-Wallace "paradox" - in the variable velocity model ,lower monetary growth now may mean higher inflation now and in the future -has its …