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DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables

Schorfheide, Frank - 2009

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463776

Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys

Cheung, Yin-Wong - 1999

We examine the properties of the ASA-NBER forecasts for several US macroeconomic variables, specifically: (i) are the actual and forecast series integrated of the same order; (ii) are they cointegrated, and; (iii) is the cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471881

Answering the Critics : Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts

Andersen, Torben G. - 1997

Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795

Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series

Scott, Steven L. - 2013

We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459094

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

Stock, James H. - 2006

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466341

Continuous-Time Linear Models

Cochrane, John H. - 2012

I translate familiar concepts of discrete-time time-series to contnuous-time equivalent. I cover lag operators, ARMA models, the relation between levels and differences, integration and cointegration, and the Hansen-Sargent prediction formulas

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460479

Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice : with Focus on Personalized Medicine

Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization using estimates of illness probabilities in clinical choice...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036

Monetary-Based Asset Pricing : A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach

Bianchi, Francesco; Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation …. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why … financial market risk. However, the structural estimation also finds that much of the causal impact of monetary policy on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210100

The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts

Molina, Renato; Rudik, Ivan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

What is the impact and value of hurricane forecasts? We study this question using newly-collected forecast data for major US hurricanes since 2005. We find higher wind speed forecasts increase pre-landfall protective spending, but erroneous under-forecasts increase post-landfall damage and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576576

The Dynamics of Car Sales : A Discrete Choice Approach

Adda, Jerome - 2000

Mankiw [1982] explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470965

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