for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i …

We explore a hypothesis about the take-off in inflation that occurred in the early 1970s. According to the expectations … trap hypothesis, the Fed was pushed into producing the high inflation out of a fear of violating the public's inflation … expectations. We compare this hypothesis with the Phillips curve hypothesis, according to which the Fed produced the high inflation …

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of arginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

illustrate the use of this approximation, we use it to characterize the change in the nature of the Phillips curve and the money-inflation … change in money growth-inflation relation …

This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is "low"--which our baseline … inflation. This finding is consistent with evidence of downward nominal wage and price rigidity. When inflation is high, the … inflation regimes at 2, 3, or 4 percent inflation or for a threshold based on country-specific medians of inflation. In this …

-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation is in terms of price levels; Model 2 is one in which the trade-off is in terms …

This paper examines the shift in the relation between the inflation rate and the rate of growth of real output which … possible lines of explanation: a) the new classical view of the output-inflation tradeoff, initially specified by Lucas;b) the … effect of supply-side shocks, such as energy prices; c) the effect of inflation variability on the natural rate of real …