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Uncertainty in both financial markets and the real economy rises sharply during recessions. We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities. We argue that there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480637
International consumption risk sharing studies have largely ignored their models' counterfactual implications for asset … returns although these returns incorporate direct market measures of risk. In this paper, we modify a canonical risk … variance of equity returns and the risk-free rate requires persistent consumption risk, leading to three main findings: (1 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460787
This paper studies Pareto-optimal risk-sharing arrangements in a private information economy with aggregate uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460841
We propose a measure for systemic risk: CoVaR, the value at risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on … institutions being under distress. We define an institution's contribution to systemic risk as the difference between CoVaR … leverage, size, and maturity mismatch predict systemic risk contribution. We also provide out of sample forecasts of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461183
assess risk magnitudes in terms of stresses to both economic values and also liquidity. Exposures would be measured before …Here, I present and discuss a "10-by-10-by-10" network-based approach to monitoring systemic financial risk. Under this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461376
that parties take on short OTC positions that lead to levels of default risk that are higher than Pareto-efficient ones. In … particular, OTC markets feature a "counterparty risk externality" that we show can lead to ex-ante productive inefficiency. This … collateral requirements and subordination of OTC positions in bankruptcy can ameliorate the counterparty risk externality, they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461658
stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility … ("uncertainty"), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462259
size in the market. The model offers a partial explanation for the surprisingly low market price of financial risk in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462610
capital of older workers. Due to the lack of inter-generational risk sharing, innovation creates a systematic risk factor …, which we call "displacement risk.'' This risk helps explain several empirical patterns, including the existence of the … growth-value factor in returns, the value premium, and the high equity premium. We assess the magnitude of displacement risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463192
future consumption given investors' information, and consequently influence equilibrium asset prices and risk premia. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463832