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shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453915
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467371
idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481194
stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility …The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy … ("uncertainty"), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462259
We characterize the joint dynamics of dividends, expected returns, stochastic volatility, and prices. In particular …, with a given dividend process, one of the processes of the expected return, the stock volatility, or the price …-dividend ratio fully determines the other two. For example, together with dividends, the stock volatility process fully determines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465813
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466398
It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively … correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level … and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472796
volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return … volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464380
This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469270
has also possessed excess volatility' in the past century. It finds no evidence of excess volatility in the pre-World War … I German stock market. By contrast, there is some evidence of excess volatility in the post-World War II German stock … volatility of German stock indices before 1914 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474925