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shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453915
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467371
We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the … Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets. Policy news is another major source of volatility: 35 percent of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479671
We propose a simple cross-sectional technique to extract daily factors from economic news released at different times and frequencies. Our approach can effectively handle the large number of different announcements that are relevant for tracking current economic conditions. We apply the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459013
.S. equities during the Great Depression. Both show increasing market volatility and a prolonged large co-movement in equity prices …. What is unique about the Japanese case is the surprising fall in firm-level volatility and turnover in Japanese stocks … after its market crash in 1990. This large decrease in firm-level volatility may have impeded Japan's capital formation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469056
We characterize the joint dynamics of dividends, expected returns, stochastic volatility, and prices. In particular …, with a given dividend process, one of the processes of the expected return, the stock volatility, or the price …-dividend ratio fully determines the other two. For example, together with dividends, the stock volatility process fully determines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465813
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466398
It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively … correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level … and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472796
idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481194
volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return … volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464380