Showing 1 - 10 of 3,430
Illegal arms are responsible for thousands of deaths in civil wars every year. Yet, their trade is very hard to detect. We propose a method to statistically detect illegal arms trade based on the investor knowledge embedded in financial markets. We focus on eight countries under UN arms embargo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465297
This paper explores the means by which warfare influences domestic commodity markets. It is argued that England during the French Wars provides an ideal testing ground. Four categories of explanatory variables are taken as likely sources of documented changes in English commodity price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462419
This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482082
We investigate the long-run effects of cooling on conflict. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We show that cooling is associated with increased conflict....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455647
have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet World War I erupted at a time of unprecedented globalization. This paper …Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a … was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not the West that pre-emptively attacked Japan. Similarly, many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458341
to go to war with each other, even after controlling for a wide set of measures of geographic distance and other factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463555
We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during World War II. We … decisions. We use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the … war. For the war generation of women, the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464939
Warfare is enormously destructive, and yet countries regularly initiate armed conflict against one another. Even more surprisingly, wars are often quite popular with citizens who stand to gain little materially and may lose much more. This paper presents a model of warfare as the result of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465922
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469089
We investigate the event-based geopolitical shocks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine on selected agricultural and energy commodities using daily event-based structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We find that the geopolitical shock affects the markets of wheat (3%) and European natural gas...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447271