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Partisan Conflict and Private Investment

Azzimonti, Marina - 2015

American politics have been characterized by a high degree of partisan conflict in recent years. Combined with a divided government, this has led not only to significant Congressional gridlock, but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty. The unusually slow recovery from the Great...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457394

Investigating the Dynamic Effects of Counterfeits with a Random Changepoint Simultaneous Equation Model

Qian, Yi - 2011

Using a unique panel dataset and a new model, this article investigates the dynamic effects of counterfeit sales on authentic-product price dynamics. We propose a Bayesian random-changepoint simultaneous equation model that simultaneously takes into account three important features in empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461965

Macroeconomics and ARCH

Hamilton, James D. - 2008

Although ARCH-related models have proven quite popular in finance, they are less frequently used in macroeconomic applications. In part this may be because macroeconomists are usually more concerned about characterizing the conditional mean rather than the conditional variance of a time series....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464495

Causal Inference in Urban and Regional Economics

Baum-Snow, Nathaniel - 2014

Recovery of causal relationships in data is an essential part of scholarly inquiry in the social sciences. This chapter discusses strategies that have been successfully used in urban and regional economics for recovering such causal relationships. Essential to any successful empirical inquiry is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458130

The Social Multiplier

Glaeser, Edward L. - 2002

In many cases, aggregate data is used to make inferences about individual level behavior. If there are social interactions in which one person's actions influence his neighbor's incentives or information, then these inferences are inappropriate. The presence of positive social interactions, or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469557

Economic Analysis of Social Interactions

Manski, Charles F. - 2000

rigor of modern economic analysis. Major theoretical developments in game theory, the economics of the family, and … endogenous growth theory have taken place. Economists have also performed new empirical research on social interactions, but the … empirical literature does not show progress comparable to that achieved in economic theory. This paper examines why and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471189

Uncertainty in Empirical Economics

Schorfheide, Frank; You, Zhiheng - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

Econometricians invest substantial effort in constructing standard errors that yield valid inference under a hypothetical data-generating process. This paper asks a fundamental question: Are the uncertainty statements reported by applied researchers consistent with empirical frequencies? The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015421913

To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out

Schorfheide, Frank - 2013

A recent literature has developed that combines two prominent empirical approaches to ex ante policy evaluation: randomized controlled trials (RCT) and structural estimation. The RCT provides a "gold-standard'' estimate of a particular treatment, but only of that treatment. Structural estimation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459096

Prediction, Judgment and Complexity : A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence

Agrawal, Ajay K. - 2018

We interpret recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) as improvements in prediction technology. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453471

Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets : Comparing Approaches

Petersen, Mitchell A. - 2005

In both corporate finance and asset pricing empirical work, researchers are often confronted with panel data. In these data sets, the residuals may be correlated across firms and across time, and OLS standard errors can be biased. Historically, the two literatures have used different solutions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467404