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News--or foresight--about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461706
Fiscal foresight -- the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future -- is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463990
This paper analyzes the quality of VAR-based procedures for estimating the response of the economy to a shock. We focus on two key issues. First, do VAR-based confidence intervals accurately reflect the actual degree of sampling uncertainty associated with impulse response functions? Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466312
investment-specific productivity. We document that in U.S. postwar quarterly data total factor productivity (TFP) and the … cointegrated if and only if neutral and investment-specific productivity share a common stochastic trend. We econometrically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462583
rates of total factor productivity in distinct consumption- and investment-goods-producing technologies. This model … attributes most of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s to the consumption-goods sector; it suggests that a slowdown in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465114
-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job at … business cycles in emerging markets and, importantly, assigns a negligible role to nonstationary productivity shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466032
Using data for the G7 countries, I estimate conditional correlations of employment and productivity, based on a …) technology shocks appear to induce a negative comovement between productivity and employment, counterbalanced by a positive … positive technology shock, and (c) measured productivity increases temporarily in response to a positive demand shock. More …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473117
This paper presents capital utilization corrected measures of technology shocks for aggregate and disaggregated (two digit Standard Industrial Classification code) industries. We correct for variations in capital utilization by employing industrial electrical use as a measure of capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473584
Does news about future productivity cause business-cycle fluctuations? What other effects might it have? We explore the … in lockstep with productivity. For the most part, the quantity and inflation responses are quite consistent with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457999
We implement a new approach for the identification of "news shocks" about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463338