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The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies – Projections for the United States and Germany from a Dynamic Microsimulation
Böheim, René; Horvath, Gerard Thomas; Leoni, Thomas; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections …Both the US and Germany are expected to undergo demographic aging, but their demographic fundamentals differ starkly … 2020 and 2060, while Germany will experience a decline by 10.7 percent (4.4 million workers). In these baseline projections …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794562
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Global Demographic Change : Dimensions and Economic Significance
Bloom, David E. - 2004
Transitions from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility can be beneficial to economies as large baby boom cohorts enter the workforce and save for retirement, while rising longevity has perhaps increased both the incentive to invest in education and to save for retirement....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467872
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Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions
Benzell, Seth G. - 2015
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia's demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457398
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Population Aging and Economic Growth : From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?
Kotschy, Rainer; Bloom, David E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950-2015....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337818
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Old Europe ages : Reforms and Reform Backlashes
Boersch-Supan, Axel H. - 2010
This paper focuses on three large Continental European countries: France, Germany, and Italy. These countries have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462881
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Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets : A Cross-National Analysis
Korenman, Sanders - 1997
We assess the evidence on the contribution of changes in the population age structure to the changing fortunes of youths in labor markets in advanced economies over the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, and use this evidence to project the likely effects of future cohort sizes on youth labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472786
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Tax Aspects of Policy Towards Aging Populations : Canada and the United States
Auerbach, Alan J. - 1990
In comparing Canada with the U.S., we first simulate the U.S. demographic transition, treating the U.S. as a closed economy. The time path of interest rates obtained from the U.S. simulations are then used in the Canadian simulations. In the Canada simulations, Canada is assumed to be an open...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475628
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Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
Auclert, Adrien; Malmberg, Hannes; Martenet, Frederic; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616609
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Simulating Alternative Social Security Responses to the Demographic Transition
Auerbach, Alan J. - 1984
The U.S. and other western economies are experiencing dramatic changes in growth and age structure of their populations. Fluctuations in birth rates are the most important determinants of these changes in the post war period. This paper examines the dynamic effects of baby "booms" and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477787
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Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth
Bloom, David E. - 2011
The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461952