volatility of GDP growth at all frequencies. Monetary policymakers looking to a neoclassical model to provide the neutral levels …

Stock return volatility during the Great Depression has been labeled a "volatility puzzle" because the standard …, and Jones; 1990). We investigate the "volatility puzzle" using a new series of building permits, a forward-looking measure … of economic activity. Our results suggest that the volatility of building permit growth largely explains the high level …

cycle volatility (the "great moderation") and the large and persistent US external imbalance. In this paper we argue that an … external imbalance is a natural consequence of the great moderation. If a country experiences a fall in volatility greater than … cannot perfectly insure against. The model suggests that a fall in business cycle volatility like the one observed for the US …

percent of the volatility of inflation before 1984 and demand shocks the remainder. The high level of output volatility before …This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since … the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in …