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There is a well-known set of empirical regularities that describe the experience of countries that peg their exchange rate as part of a macroeconomic adjustment program. Following the peg economies tend to experience an increase in GDP, a large expansion of production in the non-tradable sector,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472646
How will countries handle idiosyncratic national macroeconomic shocks under the European single currency? The ways in which European countries now react to internally asymmetric shocks provide a better forecast than do the regional response pattern of the United States. In this paper we compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471641
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and labor market policies in a small open developing country. The basic framework considers an economy with a large informal production sector and a heterogeneous work force. The labor market is segmented as a result of efficiency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474150
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia's demographic and fiscal transition … under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and … Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457398
In this paper we explore in detail the various ways by which the introduction of intermediate imports affects the comparative statics and the dynamics of adjustment in an open economy. The importance of integrating the role of intermediate imports into a theory of macro-economic adjustment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478808
We ask whether recent changes in monetary policy due to the financial crisis will be temporary or permanent. We present evidence from two surveys--one of central bank governors, the other of academic specialists. We find that central banks in crisis countries are more likely to have resorted to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455945
debt still have very major fiscal problems? The answer is that the Russia's energy resources are finite, whereas its … expenditure needs are not. Moreover, Russia is aging and facing massive obligations from its pension system and other age related …This study estimates Russia's 2013 fiscal gap at 890 trillion rubles or $28 trillion. This longterm budget shortfall is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459053
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471099
In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. The transitional hazards are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471509
I reconsider the long-standing consensus view that macroeconomic stabilization should rely on monetary policy, not fiscal policy. I use an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model that is parameterized so as to admit a bubble in public debt. In this context, I show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629446