recent global surges in inflation and government spending. This study applies the FTPL to 37 OECD countries for 2020 …-2022. The theory's centerpiece is the government's intertemporal budget constraint, which relates a country's inflation rate in … and the duration of the debt in 2019. This specification has substantial explanatory power for recent inflation rates …

inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020 …-2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices … and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time …

explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the … that the combination of runaway inflation, shortages, and black markets generated major disaffection among the middle class …

We measure the heterogeneous welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the Euro Area. A simple … framework illustrating the numerous channels of the transmission mechanism of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our …; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the elderly losing up to 20%, and roughly half of the 25 …

We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular datasets to identify robust price-setting patterns … for interpreting recent inflation dynamics …

We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision … experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are … concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are …

investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component …, respectively. In advanced economies, the firm granular residual accounts for 41% of the variance of overall inflation, while the … residuals are less important in economies with less concentrated market shares and higher inflation, such as emerging markets …

In HANK models, fiscal deficits drive aggregate demand and thus inflation because households are non-Ricardian; in the … mapping from deficits to inflation in HANK is robust to active monetary policy and free of the controversies surrounding the … inflation as the FTPL. This is true even in the simplest FTPL scenario, in which deficits are financed entirely by inflation and …