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Leveraging Lotteries for School Value-Added : Testing and Estimation
Angrist, Joshua - 2015
students' demographic characteristics and previous scores. This paper tests for VAM bias using a procedure that asks whether … model describing the joint distribution of school value-added, bias, and lottery compliance. We use this model to assess the … substantive importance of bias in conventional VAM estimates and to construct hybrid value-added estimates that optimally combine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456922
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The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries
Chinn, Menzie David; Ferrara, Laurent - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468283
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Living Up to Expectations : Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
Cole, Stephen J.; Martínez-García, Enrique; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421202
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The Drivers of Post-Pandemic Inflation
Giannone, Domenico; Primiceri, Giorgio E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but also in the Euro Area. In comparison, the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced, even though these shocks significantly constrained economic activity....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
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Using Lagged Outcomes to Evaluate Bias in Value-Added Models
Chetty, Raj - 2016
produce. The utility of VA models for performance evaluation depends on the extent to which VA estimates are biased by … evaluating bias in VA is to test for balance in lagged values of the outcome, based on the intuition that today's inputs cannot …, tests for balance using lagged outcomes do not provide robust information about the degree of bias in value-added models for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456713
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Understanding the "Problem of Economic Development" : The Role of Factor Mobility and International Taxation
Razin, Assaf - 1999
The problem of economic development,' as Lucas (1988) states it, is the problem of accounting for the observed diversity in levels and rates of growth of per capita income across countries and across time. We study conditions under which capital mobility and labor mobility (two seemingly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471679
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Pricing to Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence
Bergin, Paul R. - 1999
This paper offers an explanation for the persistence observed in real exchange rate movements. The model combines pricing to market behavior with sticky prices generated by staggered contracts. A translog preference structure is sued to enhance both features. The paper finds that openness limits...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471774
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Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?
Clarida, Richard H. - 2006
We find evidence of threshold behavior in current account adjustment for the G7 countries, such that the dynamics of adjustment towards equilibrium depend upon whether the current-account/ net-output ratio breaches estimated, country specific current account surplus or deficit thresholds. Both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466475
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Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era
Chinn, Menzie D. - 2005
The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467610
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The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate
Engel, Charles - 2001
The purchasing power parity puzzle relates to the adjustment of real exchange rates. Real exchange rates are extremely volatile, suggesting that temporary shocks emanate from the monetary sector. But the half-life of real exchange rate deviations is extremely large -- 2.5 to 5 years. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470168