Showing 1 - 10 of 605
growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453945
sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of … to overcome the pitfalls of the Curse. Ideas include indexation of oil contracts, hedging of export proceeds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462796
The national terms of trade, defined as the ratio of an export price index to an import price index has been extensively studied empirically. In this paper we construct an alternative measure, which we call the consumption terms of trade. This measure recognizes the fact that consumers and firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463069
Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know … that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over … the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463899
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458915
corn, contributing to both higher prices and greater price volatility. But turbulence in recent economic events have caused … ways that are observable in data. Price volatility and "subsidy incidence" also depend on which regime is in place. Simple … differences in variations of corn prices versus energy prices. Apparent price volatility seems due to mechanism switching and to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459788
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for … commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances … domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463197
We use variance decompositions from high-dimensional vector autoregressions to characterize connectedness in 19 key commodity return volatilities, 2011-2016. We study both static (full-sample) and dynamic (rolling-sample) connectedness. We summarize and visualize the results using tools from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012454997
Even though commodity pricing models have been successful in fitting the term structure of futures prices and its dynamics, they do not generate accurate true distributions of spot prices. This paper develops a new approach to calibrate these models using not only observations of oil futures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455689
This paper analyzes whether commodity futures prices traded in the United States reveal information relevant to stock prices of East Asian economies including China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. We find significant and positive predictive powers of overnight futures returns of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458956