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inflation and activity. If policy makers are guided by the welfare criterion of the representative household, globalization … forces also lead monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations but, at the same time, more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465371
This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467538
This paper examines what strategies policymakers have used to both reduce and control inflation. It first outlines why … a consensus has emerged that inflation needs to be controlled. Then it examines four basic strategies: exchange rate … pegging, monetary targeting, inflation targeting, and the just do it' strategy of preemptive monetary policy with no explicit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472421
A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477255
This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480393
unstable processes for output and inflation. That results holds in a" theoretical model that includes backward-looking IS an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472522
monetary policy used to reduce inflation. The evidence comes from a cross-country comparison: countries with larger decreases … in inflation and longer disinflationary periods have larger rises in the NAIRU. Imperfections in the labor market have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473339
We develop an estimator for latent factors in a large-dimensional panel of financial data that can explain expected excess returns. Statistical factor analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has problems identifying factors with a small variance that are important for asset pricing....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453100
Models of voting, including the canonical rational voter model, predict that voters are more likely to turn out when they anticipate a closer election. Yet, evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout is limited. We exploit naturally occurring variation in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455191
function involving output and inflation gaps, increasing core spending would generate substantial welfare improvements …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457242