probability distributions. This paper also explores the theoretical foundations of risk ranking, including proving a key …

We propose a measure for systemic risk: CoVaR, the value at risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on … institutions being under distress. We define an institution's contribution to systemic risk as the difference between CoVaR … leverage, size, and maturity mismatch predict systemic risk contribution. We also provide out of sample forecasts of a …

assess risk magnitudes in terms of stresses to both economic values and also liquidity. Exposures would be measured before …Here, I present and discuss a "10-by-10-by-10" network-based approach to monitoring systemic financial risk. Under this …

national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used … today at the level of individual banks by managers, investors, and regulators. The basic analytical tool is the risk … the effects of asset-liability mismatches within and across institutions. Risk-adjusted CCA balance sheets facilitate …

, analyze, and manage macroeconomic risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). We … illustrate how to use the CCA approach to model and measure sectoral and national risk exposures, and analyze policies to offset … their potentially harmful effects. This new framework provides economic balance sheets for inter-linked sectors and a risk …

Value at Risk has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and … regulatory purposes. Despite its conceptual simplicity, its measurement is a very challenging statistical problem and none of the … methodologies developed so far give satisfactory solutions. Interpreting Value at Risk as a quantile of future portfolio values …

stocks, which we contend measures the economy's risk appetite. Our novel proxy for risk appetite explains 41% of the …, the real rate forecasts returns on volatile stocks, confirming our interpretation that changes in risk appetite drive the … real rate. Increases in our measure of risk appetite are followed by a boom in investment and output …