Showing 1 - 10 of 7,411
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459206
Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … cross-fertilize the academic and practitioner communities, promoting improved market risk measurement technologies that draw … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460575
Policy makers and market participants alike wish to understand the amount, economic significance, and concentration of derivatives trading activity. This paper suggests that systematic measuring and reporting of margin by market participants, disaggregated by asset class, would provide more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459937
The consumption beta theorem of Breeden makes the expected return on any asset a function only of its covariance with changes in aggregate consumption. It is shown that the theorem is more robust than was indicated by Breeden. The theorem obtains even if one deletes Breeden's assumptions that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478428
, analyze, and manage macroeconomic risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). We … illustrate how to use the CCA approach to model and measure sectoral and national risk exposures, and analyze policies to offset … their potentially harmful effects. This new framework provides economic balance sheets for inter-linked sectors and a risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466024
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459791
of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464032
place greater weight on downside risk demand additional compensation for holding stocks with high sensitivities to downside … market movements. We show that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium for downside risk. Specifically, stocks … that covary strongly with the market when the market declines have high average returns. We estimate that the downside risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466847
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the risk of trading revenues of U.S. commercial banks. We collect … quarterly data on trading revenues, broken down by business line, as well as the Value at Risk-based market risk charge. The … across business lines. These low correlations do not corroborate systemic risk concerns. Neither is there evidence that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467650
We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We … exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is … significantly correlated with tail risk measures extracted from S&P 500 index options, but is available for a longer sample since it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459286