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Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction
Mueller, Ulrich - 2013
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459791
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Counterfactuals, Forecasts, and Choice-Theoretic Modelling of Policy
Grossman, Herschel I. - 1984
This paper focuses on the problem of formulating an analysis of economic policy that is consistent with rational expectations. Cooley, LeRoy,and Raymon show that the Lucas and Sargent strategy for econometric policy evaluation is itself vulnerable to the logic of the Lucas critique. The present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477709
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Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
Zarnowitz, Victor - 1982
Each quarter since 1968 the National Bureau of Economic Research, in collaboration with the American Statistical Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a progress report on a comprehensive study of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266
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Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination : Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives
Diebold, Francis X. - 2018
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480620
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The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting
Diebold, Francis X. - 1997
economic theory and hence rises and" falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years … powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed macroeconomic forecasting is poised for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472523
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Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility
Diebold, Francis X. - 2016
Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456064
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Dynamic Prediction Pools : An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance
Del Negro, Marco - 2014
We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call Dynamic Pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without financial frictions for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458090
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Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
Snowberg, Erik - 2012
Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460438
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Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty : Distribution Forecast Targeting
Svensson, Lars - 2005
We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466939
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Hybrid Tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns : When Does the Tail Wag the Dog?
Bali, Turan G. - 2013
We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio … return as in standard systematic risk measures. We document a positive and significant relation between hybrid tail … covariance risk (H-TCR) and expected stock returns, with an annualized premium of 9%, in contrast to the insignificant or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459202