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Henriksen, Espen - 2009

Cyclical fluctuations in nominal variables--aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates--are documented to be substantially more synchronized across countries than cyclical fluctuations in real output. A transparent mechanism that can account for this striking feature of the nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463527

Money and Output : Friedman and Schwartz Revisited

Belongia, Michael T. - 2015

More than fifty years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of pro-cyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456875

Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks

Mertens, Karel - 2010

We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462368

Cyclical Unemployment : Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?

Abraham, Katharine G. - 1984

Recent work by David Lilien has argued that the existence of a strong positive correlation between the dispersion of … certain empirically satisfied conditions, aggregate demand movements alone can produce a positive correlation between G and … interpretation and a pure aggregate demand interpretation of this positive correlation. The finding that G and the volume of help …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477679

Unlucky Cohorts : Estimating the Long-term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-sectional Data Sets

Schwandt, Hannes - 2018

This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions especially for less advantaged...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480793

The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

Elsby, Michael W. - 2007

One of the strongest trends in recent macroeconomic modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend stems in large part from an influential paper by Shimer on "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," i.e., the extent to which increased...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465803

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies : Evidence and Theory

Shimer, Robert - 2003

generates a counterfactually positive correlation between unemployment and vacancies. In both cases, the shock is only slightly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469164

A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations

Mercan, Yusuf; Schoefer, Benjamin; Sedlácek, Petr - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

In recessions, unemployment increases despite the--perhaps counterintuitive--fact that the number of unemployed workers finding jobs expands. We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations resting on this countercyclicality of gross flows from unemployment into employment. In recessions, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533320

Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions

Bils, Mark - 2014

Employment and hours appear far more cyclical than dictated by the behavior of productivity and consumption. This puzzle has been called "the labor wedge" -- a cyclical intratemporal wedge between the marginal product of labor and the marginal rate of substitution of consumption for leisure. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458110

Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire : Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News

Ilut, Cosmin - 2014

Concave hiring rules imply that firms respond more to bad shocks than to good shocks. They provide a unified explanation for several seemingly unrelated facts about employment growth in macro and micro data. In particular, they generate countercyclical movement in both aggregate conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458195

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