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Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the …-country overlapping generations model and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year … rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470165
The purpose of this paper is to investigate in detail the behavior of the current account in emerging economies, and in particular its role if any in financial crises. Models of current account behavior are reviewed, and a dynamic model of current account sustainability is developed. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470449
In this paper I investigate the historical record of countries that have lived under a 'dollarized' monetary system. As it turns out, this is a very small group of counties, most of which have operated under very special circumstances, and for which there are very limited data. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470450
This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472191
The organization of this paper is as follows. Section I builds an empirically implementable model of the current account. Likewise, Section II derives the essential time series properties of the real exchange rate. Positive implications of the intertemporal approach against panel and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474625
This paper uses a global macroeconomic simulation model to identify the factors that have contributed to global trade and financial imbalances in the 1980s. After investigating the properties of monetary and fiscal policies in the model, we examine whether the budgetary shifts in the OECD...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476729
This paper develops a dynamic framework in which macroeconomic liberalization and stabilization measures of the type recently seen in Latin America can be studied. The model is sufficiently general to cover both polar cases of a closed capital account and free private capital mobility, so the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477560
Large savings and current account surpluses by China and other countries are said to be a contributor to the global current account imbalances and possibly to the recent global financial crisis. This paper proposes a theory of excess savings based on a major, albeit insufficiently recognized by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462653
features of the world at present are the low rates of investment and growth in some of the richest countries, whose surpluses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463124
Trending current accounts pose a challenge for intertemporal open-economy macro models. This paper shows that a two-country representative-agent business cycle model is able to explain the historical time-paths of the US and Japanese current accounts, both of which display trends but in opposite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463405