Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic … empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is … inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then …

It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively … correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level … empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and …

It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock … for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting model is asymmetric, because volatility feedback amplifies large … for large crashes. The model also implies that volatility feedback is more important when volatility is high. In U …

We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates …

A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and … return volatility. In an application to the DM/$ exchange rate, the S&P500 market index, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond … non-jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model, we find that almost all of the …

the relationships in detail. Among other things, we show that: (a) Volatility dependence produces sign dependence, so long … as expected returns are nonzero, so that one should expect sign dependence, given the overwhelming evidence of volatility … of sign dependence and volatility dependence; (c) Sign dependence is not likely to be found via analysis of sign …

In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are …

forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic …