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Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
Froot, Kenneth A. - 1987
Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476706
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Exchange Rates, Natural Rates, and the Price of Risk
Kekre, Rohan; Lenel, Moritz - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the source of exchange rate fluctuations using a general equilibrium model accommodating shocks in goods and financial markets. These shocks differ in their induced comovements between exchange rates, interest rates, and quantities. A calibration matching data from the U.S. and G10...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072917
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Currency Centrality in Equity Markets, Exchange Rates and Global Financial Cycles
Rey, Hélène; Stavrakeva, Vania; Tang, Jenny - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
The paper explores empirically the tight links between exchange rates and the global network of equity holdings. Exchange rates can be expressed in terms of "equity net currency supplies", i.e. local currency stock market capitalization minus equity holdings, denominated in investors'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072944
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Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices
Chen, Joseph - 2000
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074
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Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management
Andersen, Torben G. - 2005
What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467618
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Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility
Pagan, Adrian R. - 1989
This paper compares several statistical models for monthly stock return volatility. The focus is on U.S. data from 1834 … volatility that are inconsistent with stationary models for conditional heteroskedasticity, We show the importance of … of stock volatility, even over the 1834-1925 period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476093
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Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets
Diebold, Francis X. - 2008
formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates … evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs. volatility spillovers: Return spillovers display a … gently increasing trend but no bursts, whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464836
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Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?
Bordo, Michael D. - 2000
We examine the evidence of contagion during the pre World War I era and the interwar and contrast our findings with the evidence of contagion from the recent crises in Asia and Latin America. Using weekly data on bond prices and interest rates, we investigate the extent to which bilateral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470837
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The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited
Edwards, Sebastian - 2006
volatility is different in countries with an inflation targeting regime than in countries with alternative monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466531
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Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets : A Vertical Perspective
Caballero, Ricardo - 2004
Firms in emerging markets are exposed to severe financial frictions and credit constraints, that are exacerbated by the sudden stop of capital inflows. Can monetary policy offset this external credit squeeze? We show that although this may be the case during moderate contractions (or in partial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468176