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This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with two types of people where asset price fluctuations are caused by random shocks to the price level that reallocate consumption across generations. In this model, asset prices are volatile, and price-earnings ratios are persistent, even though...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456447
This paper estimates a business cycle model with endogenous financial asset supply and ambiguity averse investors. Firms' shareholders choose not only production and investment, but also capital structure and payout policy subject to financial frictions. An increase in uncertainty about profits...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458583
The representative agent model (RA) has dominated macroeconomics for the last thirty years. This model does a reasonably good job of explaining the co-movements of consumption, investment, GDP and employment during normal times. But it cannot easily explain movements in asset prices. Two facts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458706
This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458949
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460556
role for credit growth (beyond its role in constructing the inflation forecast) would reduce the volatility of output and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462254
To identify disruptions in credit markets, research on the role of asset prices in economic fluctuations has focused on the information content of various corporate credit spreads. We re-examine this evidence using a broad array of credit spreads constructed directly from the secondary bond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463785
This paper shows that stock volatility increases during recessions and financial crises from 1834-1987. The evidence … stock volatility, I show that volatility increases after major financial crises. Moreover. stock volatility decreases and … can control stock volatility. The evidence supports the observation by Black [1976] that stock volatility increases after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476091
Recent critiques have demonstrated that existing attempts to account for the unemployment volatility puzzle of search … volatility of risk-free rates. We propose a model that is immune to these critiques and solves this puzzle by allowing for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480524
shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453915