In the centuries leading up to the Industrial Revolution, Western Europe gradually pulled ahead of other world regions in terms of technological creativity, population growth, and income per capita. We argue that superior institutions for the creation and dissemination of productive knowledge...

We investigate the role of mechanical ability as another dimension that, jointly with cognitive and socio-emotional, affects schooling decisions and labor market outcomes. Using a Roy model with a factor structure and data from the NLSY79, we show that the labor market positively rewards...

The long-standing view in US economic history is the shift in manufacturing in the nineteenth century from the artisan shop to the mechanized factory led to "labor deskilling." Craft workers were displaced by mix of semi-skilled operatives, unskilled workers, and a reduced force of mechanics to...

This paper considers growth and fluctuations in a standard Overlapping Generations (OLG) model with rational expectations, with land (a non-produced asset), credit frictions, and endogenous growth. Under plausible conditions, there can be multiple momentary equilibria, with the multiplicity...

This paper embeds a circular Hotelling model of spatial competition into a new-Keynesian model with staggered price setting. The resulting framework provides microfoundations for a cost-push shock, taking the form of random variations in transportation costs. An increase in transportation costs...

We study how uncertainty propagates through production networks. First, we construct a highly disaggregated, forward-looking measure of industry-level uncertainty using option-implied volatility data for U.S. firms. Second, we identify the effects of higher uncertainty within industries, across...

This paper develops a new algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data to reduce detection noise. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false negatives (missed recessions) and false...

This paper examines the relationship between green innovation and the business cycle, revealing that while non-green innovation is procyclical, green innovation is countercyclical. This pattern holds unconditionally over the business cycle and conditional on economic shocks. Motivated by these...

The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the patterns of recessions and recoveries of 101 advanced and developing economies. We identify the turning points of recessions and expansions between...

The COVID business cycle was unique. The recession was by far the deepest and shortest in the U.S. postwar record and the recovery was remarkably rapid. The cycle saw an unprecedented reallocation of employment and consumption away from in-person services towards goods that can be consumed at...