Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs' expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables,...

A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers' subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed new survey measure of subjective uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000...

Agricultural producers make investment decisions based on beliefs about future returns. This article investigates how changes in beliefs about input availability affects the adoption of conservation practices. We develop a theoretical model to examine how a producer's beliefs about water...

With agency costs of managerial discretion, equity financing is advantageous for the shareholders of firms with valuable investment opportunities but not for the shareholders of other firms. Accordingly, we find that firms with good investment opportunities are more likely to issue equity than...

The existing literature on firms, based on incomplete contracts and property rights, emphasizes that the ownership of assets - and thereby firm boundaries - is determined in such a way as to encourage relationship-specific investments by the appropriate parties. It is generally accepted that...

We survey 885 institutional venture capitalists (VCs) at 681 firms to learn how they make decisions across eight areas: deal sourcing; investment selection; valuation; deal structure; post-investment value-added; exits; internal firm organization; and relationships with limited partners. In selecting...

This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure for three- and six-month Treasury bills. Previous studies are extended in three directions. First, common efficient markets-rational expectations tests are compared, and it is shown...

We examine the role of generalized constant gain stochastic gradient (SGCG) learning in generating large deviations of an endogenous variable from its rational expectations value. We show analytically that these large deviations can occur with a frequency associated with a fat tailed...

We analyze the short and long-run performance of firms that were differentially affected by a new tax on dividends in the lead-up to the Global Financial Crisis. We use exogenous policy variation for firms with different legal statuses and financial year-end dates to causally identify the policy...