We find evidence suggesting that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. Second, we show that this bias is not present in forecasts data that is...

I study the equilibrium and the welfare effects of international trade when product markets are imperfectly competitive due of search frictions--as in Burdett and Judd (1983)--rather than product differentiation--as in Dixit and Stiglitz (1977). Markups are positive, even though there are...

Incarcerated individuals in the U.S. purchase goods and services from monopoly vendors selected by their correctional authority. We study telecommunications, which have come under bipartisan scrutiny due to the high prices inmates pay for phone calls. Prospective providers are evaluated on their...

Industries with significant scale economies or learning-by-doing may come to be dominated by a single firm. Economists have studied how likely this is to happen, and whether it is efficient, using models where buyers are price or quantity takers, even though these industries are often also...

I study a version of the search-theoretic model of imperfect competition by Burdett and Judd (1983) in which sellers face a strictly increasing rather than a constant marginal cost of production. The equilibrium exists and is unique, and its structure depends on the extent of search frictions....

I derive a formula for the equilibrium distribution of markups in the search- theoretic model of imperfect competition of Butters (1977), Varian (1980), and Burdett and Judd (1983). The level of markups and the sign of the relationship between a seller's markup and its size depends on the extent...

Firms tend to compete more aggressively in financial distress; the intensified competition in turn reduces profit margins, pushing themselves further into distress and adversely affecting other firms. To study such feedback and contagion effects, we incorporate strategic competition into a...

We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while...

As central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), adopt climate-related responsibilities, gauging public support becomes essential. Drawing on a June 2023 Bundesbank household survey, we find that 69% of households report increased trust in the ECB due to its climate actions, valuing...

Amid growing interest in industrial policy, we develop a model exploring the tension between market-driven information discovery and policymakers' career incentives. While market-based information discovery can help address informational barriers faced by policymakers, career incentives may lead...